
As we knock on the door to 2009 it’s time to accept that the internet is now a fully-fledged commercial channel that is (or should be) at the heart of any business’ marketing strategy. It’s also time to face up to the fact that we’re all under the auspices of Google. And, crucially, it’s time for a reality check: Google are in it for money. So what does that mean for your online marketing spend?
Google has changed. The whole “hello trees, gosh, we’re just doing our best to make the world a better place” schtick is a pretty tattered figleaf when you’re richer than Croesus and making billions every month. Google are a commercial juggernaut with an enormous vested interest in the direction the internet is taking. They’re also calling the shots in any number of ways and – critically – forcing people into a game in which they are the ultimate winners.
2008 was the year of the step-change. The once-familiar results page of 10, text-only results vanished under a welter of Google-sponsored innovations of mixed worth to the user but incredible worth to Google.
Type in "shoes" and what do you get? Top result – a YouTube video. Then a couple of ‘normal’ results. Then a flurry of newspaper headlines. Then Google Shopping results. Then some more ‘normal’ results. Click the shopping results, the news results or the YouTube results and hey presto! More opportunities for Google to put advertising under your nose.

But even in the normal, traditional results – who buys their shoes at Amazon? Are Amazon known for their shoe retailing? No – but they do spend enormous sums with Google each year, and generate revenue for Google through AdSense (is there a little tickle in the ranking for Amazon as an unofficial kickback?) and Google's algorthim is heavily weighted towards enormous sites like Amazon.
This instance isn’t even as bad as I imagined it might be – I’m quietly stunned not to see Wikipedia in there and a couple of Google Books results. Still we’re looking at 11 PPC results, 1 YouTube video, 4 Google shopping results, 4 Google News results and just 9 traditional organic results. That’s organic SEO 9, Google 20.
Still not enough randomness to decipher? Factor in the following:
Given this landscape, any company claiming to be able guarantee first page rankings through SEO is talking moonshine. Google are making the game too complex, too rapidly changing, too tilted towards properties they own and can monetise. If they decide to punish you for Whatever Reason, they can cut your sales off at the knees and there is no court of appeal.
The companies who will prosper in this environment will have to be very savvy about the way in which they approach Google, and protect their revenue streams from the capricious decisions that Google can make.
If all you have is a limited budget then throwing it all at something like SEO is a luxury you can’t afford – buy traffic, measure the results and decide whether the game is worth the candle. If you’ve got bigger budgets and wider horizons, there’s a world of opportunity out there. If you only rely on Google you could be missing a trick.